The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has reported a 96% probability that the El Niño phenomenon will persist from November 2026 through March 2027, potentially influencing weather patterns in the UAE. While this indicates a strong likelihood of El Niño’s continuation, it does not guarantee increased rainfall in the region, as clarified by NCM officials.
As El Niño strengthens, its effects on the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula may alter wind patterns and the trajectories of low-pressure systems, which are crucial for rainfall. However, the NCM emphasized that the intensity and occurrence of rain depend on various factors, including moisture availability, wind direction, and the positioning of weather systems. “Rainfall and its intensity depend on available moisture, wind patterns, the position of low-pressure systems, and conditions that help air rise and clouds grow,” a spokesperson stated.
Understanding El Niño’s Impact
The NCM’s seasonal outlook suggests that temperatures and rainfall in the UAE could be near or above normal during the El Niño period. However, the agency cautioned that the 96% probability refers solely to the persistence of El Niño, not to the likelihood of rain. The actual rainfall will depend on whether the right meteorological conditions align, which can vary significantly.
For instance, moisture may originate from the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, but whether it reaches the UAE hinges on prevailing wind patterns and the location of weather systems. Thus, while El Niño can influence weather, it does not directly dictate rainfall amounts or intensity.
Current Weather Conditions
In the meantime, the NCM forecasts fair to partly cloudy weather across the UAE today, with a chance of convective cloud formation in eastern and northern regions, possibly leading to rainfall. Humidity levels are expected to remain moderate, peaking at 70% in Dubai and 60% in Abu Dhabi, with mist formation likely in coastal areas.
Today’s temperatures will reach a high of 36°C in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, and Ras Al Khaimah, while Ajman and Umm Al Quwain will see a maximum of 35°C. Fujairah is expected to be the coolest emirate, with a high of 32°C.
Sea Conditions and Outdoor Activities
For those looking to enjoy outdoor activities, the NCM has reported slight sea conditions in both the eastern and western regions, with wave heights reaching up to two feet onshore and three feet offshore in the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. This weekend presents a favorable opportunity for beachgoers to take advantage of the pleasant weather.
As the UAE prepares for the potential impacts of El Niño, residents are encouraged to stay informed about weather updates from the NCM, particularly as the season progresses.
