Global Fuel Prices Surge: Consumers Face Steep Increases Amid Ongoing Crisis

As of May 1, governments worldwide are raising fuel prices, placing the financial burden on consumers amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Following the initial US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, Brent Crude oil prices skyrocketed from approximately $73 per barrel to $120 within ten days, marking a staggering 65 percent increase. This surge triggered a market correction and a subsequent fuel crisis that has impacted cities globally, including Islamabad, Mumbai, Dubai, Berlin, and Los Angeles, with no immediate resolution in sight.

How the Hormuz Crisis Disrupted the Global Fuel Market

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for 20 percent of the world’s seaborne crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, Iran has restricted the flow through this vital route since the onset of hostilities. In early April, the loading of crude oil, LNG, and refined products through the Strait was projected at around 3.8 million barrels per day.

Prior to the crisis, oil exports were as high as 20 million barrels per day in February. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a loss of over 13 million barrels per day in oil exports, with total supply losses exceeding 360 million barrels in March and projected to reach 440 million barrels in April.

The US naval blockade, initiated on April 13, has targeted all vessels transiting Iranian ports, further exacerbating the situation. Global oil reserve inventories plummeted by 85 million barrels in March alone, with a more significant decline of 205 million barrels in stocks outside the Middle East Gulf. QatarEnergy declared a ‘Force Majeure’ on its LNG contracts in early March, while European gas futures surged from €35.5 per MWh to €61.93.

Country by Country: Current Fuel Price Increases

At least 85 countries have reported increases in fuel prices as an immediate consequence of the conflict. The responses vary significantly between nations with domestic production capabilities and those without.

In the UAE, the Fuel Price Committee has raised petrol prices for May 2026. Following a global rise in fuel prices of approximately 60 percent due to the Hormuz closure, petrol prices in the UAE increased by nearly one-third in April alone. Super98 is now priced at Dh3.66 per liter, Special 95 at Dh3.55, and E-Plus91 at Dh3.48. Filling a tank in May could cost between Dh13.77 and Dh20.72, with diesel prices also rising over 70 percent in April.

In Pakistan, the Federal Government has been adjusting prices weekly since the conflict began. Effective May 1, petrol prices increased by Rs6.51 per liter, bringing the price to Rs399.86. High-speed diesel saw a jump of Rs19.39, reaching Rs399.58 per liter. The highest recorded petrol price during the conflict peaked at Rs458.40 per liter on April 3.

Conversely, the Indian government has maintained its stance against price hikes. The Ministry of Petroleum stated on April 23 that reports suggesting a price increase were false. Analysts, however, caution that this situation may not be sustainable, as every $1 rise in crude oil costs India an additional $2 billion annually in oil imports.

In the United States, a gallon of regular petrol has risen by 20 percent, from $2.94 in February to $3.58. California has reported prices exceeding $5 per gallon, the highest in over two years. In Europe, the average price of Euro 95 petrol across all 27 EU member states was €1.764 per liter, while diesel averaged around €1.943 per liter as of April 20. Spain experienced a 27 percent increase, and Ireland recorded the highest price in the EU at €2.30 per liter.

The UAE’s OPEC Exit: A Potential Relief?

On May 1, the UAE formally exited OPEC and OPEC+. Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, indicated that this decision stems from diminishing market incentives. He noted that in a contracting market, the reasons to remain in the group are increasingly weak.

This exit theoretically allows the UAE to increase production by 30 percent beyond previous quota constraints. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) aims to achieve a production target of five million barrels per day by 2027. While increased supply could alleviate global fuel prices, the complexities of the market suggest that relief may not be immediate.

The UAE’s Energy Minister described the exit as a “gradual boost to production,” indicating that supply increases will be phased. Unlike Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, UAE crude can bypass the Strait of Hormuz through the Abu Dhabi Pipeline to Fujairah. Brent crude is currently trading near multi-week highs of $117 per barrel, with analysts predicting no short-term reduction in fuel prices.

Future Outlook: Will Fuel Prices Decrease?

The World Bank anticipates that fuel prices could surge by up to 24 percent in 2026, with Brent averaging $86 per barrel and potentially spiking to $115 if the conflict continues. This projection assumes that disruptions will cease in May and that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will return to pre-war conditions.

Despite a ceasefire being technically in place, the US naval blockade remains active, and Iran has consistently refused to engage in negotiations. Revenue from tolls is currently flowing into Tehran’s central bank, complicating the prospects for a swift resolution. Damage to Gulf energy infrastructure is expected to require years for repair, regardless of when tensions subside. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has stated that even if peace were achieved immediately, a return to normalcy for the EU would not occur in the foreseeable future. The initial shock from the war has been sustained by the blockade, with long-lasting impacts on global infrastructure.

Source: timesofdubai.ae

Read all the latest developments and breaking updates in the Latest News section.

Published on 2026-05-01 19:21:00 • By the Editorial Desk