Wealthy Expatriates Scramble to Leave Dubai Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
The ongoing conflict involving Iran has significantly impacted Dubai’s reputation as a global wealth hub, prompting many expatriates to flee and leading family offices and wealth managers to reassess their presence in the region.
Dubai’s Rise as a Wealth Haven
Over the past decade, Dubai has positioned itself as a safe haven for the elite, attracting individuals with its sunny climate, safety, and tax-free income. According to Henley & Partners, the number of millionaires in Dubai has doubled since 2014, surpassing 81,000. The luxury real estate market has thrived, with 500 properties selling for over $10 million last year, a stark increase from just 30 in 2020.
However, recent events have tarnished Dubai’s image of safety.
Recent Attacks Shake Confidence
In the past week, several incidents have raised alarms. An explosion occurred at the Fairmont The Palm Hotel, and debris from a downed Iranian drone ignited a fire at the Burj Al Arab hotel. Additionally, missile strikes have damaged Dubai International Airport, and the U.S. Consulate in Dubai was reportedly targeted by a suspected drone strike, causing a nearby fire.
Jim Krane, a fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, noted that the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran is undermining the essential security perception in Dubai. He emphasized that the city’s economic model relies heavily on expatriate residents who contribute talent and investment. Stability and security are crucial for attracting these individuals.
Government Response to Investor Concerns
In response to these developments, Dubai and the United Arab Emirates have made efforts to reassure investors. The UAE’s National Emergency Crisis and Disasters Management Authority stated that the situation is “under control.” Furthermore, Dubai’s police have warned social media influencers against sharing content that contradicts official announcements or could incite panic.
Other regional wealth centers, including Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Riyadh, are also feeling the repercussions of the conflict. While they too aim to attract wealthy individuals, Dubai’s unique reliance on foreign confidence sets it apart. Krane pointed out that the city could face severe consequences if expatriates choose to leave en masse.
Expatriate Wealth and Economic Strategies
Currently, Dubai is home to 237 centimillionaires and at least 20 billionaires, as reported by Henley & Partners. In 2025, approximately 9,800 millionaires relocated to Dubai, bringing with them $63 billion in wealth—more than any other country. Most of these wealthy individuals hail from the U.K., China, India, and various European and Asian nations.
The Maktoum family has long sought to diversify the economy away from oil, establishing special economic zones and golden visa programs to attract wealth as a national strategy. Dubai’s lack of personal income tax, capital gains tax, and inheritance tax makes it particularly appealing to the ultra-wealthy and family offices. The Dubai International Finance Center reported that the top 120 families in the zone manage over $1.2 trillion collectively, with a 61% increase in family-related entities over the past year.
Demand for Private Jet Travel Surges
As tensions rise, many affluent families and professionals are prioritizing exit strategies. Charter companies have noted a surge in demand for private jets, far exceeding available flights and seats. Ameerh Naran, CEO of Vimana Private Jets, indicated that his firm received over 100 inquiries from clients in a single night, a level of demand not seen since the pandemic. He mentioned that flights from Riyadh to Europe can cost up to $350,000.
Despite the turmoil, Naran reported that many Dubai residents are traveling for business rather than fleeing for safety. He stated that they do not feel unsafe, describing the situation as “life as normal” with some added noise from missile activity.
Ongoing Exodus and Security Concerns
Dale Buckner, CEO of Global Guardian and a former Green Beret, observed that the exodus of expatriates shows no signs of abating. By Tuesday morning, his firm had seven corporate clients, including large finance and consulting firms, seeking to evacuate between 1,000 and 3,000 employees. He compared the situation to that of Ukraine, noting that the Iranians have successfully targeted high-profile locations.
Many businesses in Dubai maintain that the rationale for remaining in the city is still strong, especially given the stable regulatory and banking environment. Hasnain Malik, who leads emerging markets equity and geopolitics strategy at Tellimer, affirmed that the fundamental reasons for staying have not changed, although recent events have raised questions about security.
Long-Term Implications for Real Estate
The real estate market in Dubai, which has seen consistent price increases for five consecutive years, may face longer-term challenges. The golden visa program, which offers a 10-year renewable visa for property purchases of $550,000 or more, has fueled this growth. Last year, a penthouse at the Bugatti Residences set a record by selling for approximately $150 million.
However, even prior to the Iran conflict, there were indications that Dubai’s rapid development and soaring prices might begin to stabilize. UBS ranked Dubai as having the fifth-highest bubble risk among 21 major cities, trailing behind Zurich and Los Angeles. Fitch Ratings has predicted a potential correction in late 2025 or 2026, with property values possibly declining by up to 15%.
Fitch Ratings’ Anton Lopatin noted that the impact on real estate values will depend on the conflict’s duration and intensity. He indicated that expatriate departures could exert pressure on Dubai’s housing market.
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Published on 2026-03-05 13:59:00 • By Editorial Desk
