Trump Needs China More Than Ever as Xi Holds Iran Card

US President Donald Trump is set to visit China on May 14-15, aiming to secure limited trade agreements amid a backdrop of legal challenges and declining approval ratings. This visit marks the first meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping since the two leaders paused a contentious trade war last October. Analysts suggest that Trump’s ambitious plans have been tempered, focusing now on deals related to agricultural products, aircraft, and seeking China’s assistance in addressing the ongoing conflict in Iran.

The Shift in Expectations

A year ago, Trump expressed confidence that imposing significant tariffs would compel China to comply with US demands. However, recent court rulings have complicated his strategy, forcing a recalibration of his objectives. Alejandro Reyes, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at the University of Hong Kong, noted that Trump now appears to need China more than it needs him, as he seeks a foreign policy win to stabilize his standing domestically and internationally.

Since their last encounter at a South Korean airbase, where Trump suspended tariffs on Chinese goods, China has intensified its economic leverage against the US. This shift comes as Trump grapples with legal challenges surrounding his tariff policies and a controversial military engagement in Iran, which has negatively impacted his approval ratings ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.

High-Stakes Summit in Beijing

The upcoming summit in Beijing is expected to be a significant event, featuring meetings at the Great Hall of the People and a tour of the UNESCO World Heritage Site, the Temple of Heaven. Despite the grandeur of the occasion, the anticipated outcomes appear modest, with only a few agreements and mechanisms for future trade management on the table. Officials involved in the planning have indicated uncertainty regarding the extension of their existing trade truce.

Trump’s delegation will include notable CEOs such as Elon Musk of Tesla and Tim Cook of Apple, although the size of the business contingent is smaller compared to his previous visit to Beijing in 2017. In addition to trade discussions, Trump has indicated intentions to address arms sales to Taiwan and the case of Jimmy Lai, a media tycoon currently imprisoned in China. Families of two Americans who have been detained in China for over a decade are also urging Trump to advocate for their release.

Complications of the Iran Conflict

The geopolitical landscape has shifted significantly since Trump declared in April 2025 that his tariffs would end what he termed China’s “days of ripping off” the United States. The tariffs prompted China to restrict exports of rare earth elements, highlighting the West’s reliance on these critical materials for manufacturing, which ultimately led to a fragile truce between the two nations.

Trump’s administration has faced numerous challenges, including efforts to capture Venezuela’s leadership, threats to annex Greenland, and an ongoing military conflict in Iran that has destabilized the Middle East and contributed to a global energy crisis. Recent polling indicates that over 60% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s approach to the Iran conflict.

In a bid to resolve the situation, Trump is looking to China to leverage its relationship with Tehran. China, which maintains strong ties with Iran and is a major consumer of its oil exports, may have its own interests in the outcome of this conflict.

Matt Pottinger, a former deputy national security advisor during Trump’s first term, remarked that while China may prefer a scenario that diminishes US power, it is also aware of the economic repercussions of a prolonged conflict.

Taiwan: A Central Concern

As the summit approaches, concerns regarding Taiwan are rising. Xi Jinping’s agenda is likely to prioritize Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as its own. Some analysts fear that any agreement reached could embolden China to take aggressive action toward Taiwan. Even subtle shifts in US policy language could raise alarms among US allies in Asia regarding Washington’s commitment to Taiwan’s defense.

Wu Xinbo, a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai and a member of China’s foreign ministry advisory board, emphasized that Trump should clarify his stance, ensuring that he does not support Taiwanese independence or actions that could encourage separatist sentiments.

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Published on 2026-05-13 16:18:00 • By the Editorial Desk