U.S. Markets Rebound as Oil Retreats Amid Easing Iran Tensions; Gold and Silver Surge
U.S. equity markets experienced a significant rebound on Monday, driven by improved geopolitical sentiment that bolstered risk appetite across Wall Street. Initially, markets opened sharply lower as crude oil prices surged toward $120 per barrel due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, the mood shifted positively after former President Donald Trump indicated that the conflict with Iran might conclude sooner than anticipated, alleviating concerns about prolonged geopolitical disruption. Following this, oil prices retreated to around $90 per barrel, facilitating a robust recovery in equities and marking the largest intraday comeback in nearly a year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 239 points, or 0.5%, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged by 1.4%, showcasing a strong recovery after early-session declines.
Market Overview
In early trading on Tuesday, the S&P 500 was flat near $6,780, while the Nasdaq Composite remained steady around $24,910, indicating a pause following the previous day’s rally.
On the corporate front, four companies—Vertiv Holdings, Lumentum Holdings, Coherent Corp, and EchoStar Corporation—are set to join the S&P 500 as part of the quarterly rebalance before trading begins on March 23. This inclusion could attract additional institutional inflows into these stocks.
Investor attention is now shifting toward corporate earnings, with Oracle Corporation’s results expected later today. The recent decline in energy prices is enhancing overall risk sentiment, likely supporting U.S. equities as markets anticipate a potential resolution to the Iran conflict.
From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 has immediate support at $6,710, which corresponds to last week’s low, followed by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $6,611. Immediate resistance is identified at $6,812, the previous day’s high, followed by the 100-day SMA at $6,847, and last week’s high at $6,901.
Crude Oil Volatility
Crude oil experienced one of its most volatile trading sessions on record, gaining over 30% on Monday before closing 6.72% lower. During Tuesday’s Asian session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading approximately 3.83% higher, while Brent crude saw gains of about 3%. The dramatic fluctuations on Monday saw Brent crude oscillate within a $36 range, the widest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has prompted neighboring Gulf nations to cut output, consequently raising prices for oil, natural gas, and gasoil. U.S. retail gasoline prices have reached their highest levels since August 2024. The sell-off on Monday was triggered by Trump’s comments suggesting a swift end to the conflict in Iran, which alleviated concerns over rising energy costs globally. Additionally, the world’s largest economies announced the release of approximately 400 million barrels of emergency crude reserves to counteract the blockage of about 20% of global output. As geopolitical uncertainties persist, intraday price ranges for oil are expected to remain elevated, influenced by further updates on regional tensions.
WTI may find support near the $80 level, aligning with the 200-exponential moving average (EMA) on the hourly chart and the 9-EMA on the daily chart. Should prices drop below this level, further selling momentum could ensue. Conversely, if WTI surpasses the 21 and 50-EMA on the hourly chart near the $91 level, strong buying activity may continue.
Dollar Index Performance
The DXY index fell by 0.13% on Monday, briefly touching resistance at 99.67 before closing at $98.73. The decline in the dollar was attributed to Trump’s remarks regarding the potential resolution of the Middle Eastern conflict.
Currently, the dollar is influenced more by risk sentiment than by interest rate differentials, as indicated by Bloomberg’s BECO decomposition model. Previously, monetary policy expectations were the primary driver of dollar strength, but the model now shows that global risk sentiment has taken precedence. Although Trump’s comments may have temporarily calmed the market, the underlying conflict remains unresolved, leaving investors and markets awaiting further developments. During periods of market indecision, dollar volatility is likely to remain high.
Technically, the dollar is trading above its 9-, 21-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs, indicating bullish momentum. However, it faces strong resistance around $99.70, a level it has struggled to break on multiple occasions. A move above $99.75 could pave the way toward the psychological $100 level. Immediate support for the dollar is at $98.56, coinciding with the 100-day SMA. While most indicators remain bullish, momentum appears to be waning as the market anticipates the next round of geopolitical updates. This is reflected in the MACD, which remains steady at 0.32, while the RSI has shown a slight decline from 59 to 56.
Precious Metals Surge
Gold prices increased by 0.76% to $5,177, while silver surged by 2.27% to $89. The rebound in gold followed indications from Trump that easing geopolitical tensions reduced the demand for safe-haven assets. Signs that the U.S.-Iran standoff may be moving toward resolution contributed to a sharp decline in oil prices and a weakening dollar, benefiting gold after weeks of volatile, liquidity-driven selling.
Gold has faced pressure from geopolitical risks, rising oil prices, and persistent inflation, leading to reduced expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts. This has resulted in ETF outflows and investors selling gold to cover other positions in the equity market. However, a multi-year buying trend by central banks, particularly from China, has continued to support gold prices structurally as it remains a viable alternative to the dollar-based system.
Gold is currently trading at $5,177 after bouncing from the $5,000 demand zone, indicating increasing buying conviction. A break above $5,200 would suggest that buyers are gaining control, potentially targeting $5,290. Support is established at $5,090, and a firm break below the $5,000 level could jeopardize the broader uptrend.
Silver is consolidating just below $90, showing rising short-term momentum. A break above $94 would open the path toward $96–$97. Support is positioned at $85–$82.60, bolstered by the 50-day SMA, while $80 remains a critical level for downside movement.
Gold Prices in the UAE
- 24k: AED 623.00
- 22k: AED 576.75
- 21k: AED 553.00
- 18k: AED 474.00
- 14k: AED 369.75
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Published on 2026-03-10 14:04:00 • By Editorial Desk
