Middle East Crisis Risks 0.2% Decline in Africa’s Economic Growth in 2026
The ongoing crisis in the Middle East is projected to adversely affect global economies, with African nations facing a potential growth decline of up to 0.2 percent. This alarming forecast was revealed in a joint policy document presented on April 15, 2026, in Washington, D.C., by key organizations including the African Union Commission, the African Development Bank Group (AfDB), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
Impacts of Middle Eastern Conflicts on African Economies
The report, titled “Impacts of the Conflict in the Middle East on African Economies,” highlights that African economies, which were gradually recovering from the severe repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and increasing trade tariffs, may be among the most affected by the current turmoil in the Middle East.
Kevin Urama, Chief Economist and Vice President for Economic Governance and Knowledge Management at AfDB, presented the findings during the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. He noted the significant implications of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for transport and trade.
Francisca Tatchouop Belobe, African Union Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Development, Trade, Tourism, Industry, and Mining, remarked that the report underscores the continent’s remarkable resilience in the face of adversity.
Economic Consequences and Recommendations
The report outlines several key effects of the Middle Eastern conflicts on African economies, including rising prices of hydrocarbons, food products, and fertilizers. These conflicts are also disrupting global trade, logistics, and supply chains, leading to volatility in capital and foreign exchange markets.
Claver Gatete, Executive Secretary of the ECA, emphasized that 80 percent of the oil imported into Africa originates from this region, along with 50 percent of refined petroleum. Consequently, 31 African countries are already experiencing currency depreciation due to these conflicts.
To mitigate the crisis, Urama urged African governments to remain calm and avoid hasty decisions that could jeopardize their fiscal stability. The report advocates for strategic inflation management to maintain short-term price stability expectations. It also advises oil-exporting nations to exercise fiscal discipline by managing windfall revenues prudently and strengthening debt monitoring.
Strategic Measures for Resilience
The report further recommends that African governments implement temporary and targeted social protection measures to support the most vulnerable populations. However, it cautions against broad-based subsidies that could exacerbate long-term fiscal deficits and encourages diversification of energy sources, inputs, and food supplies.
Moreover, it calls for strengthening regional and intra-African trade in oil and fertilizer markets to enhance resilience and ensure effective inter-institutional coordination to harmonize strategic monetary and fiscal policies.
Development partners, multilateral banks, and development finance institutions are urged to provide emergency support to African nations through crisis response measures and technical assistance. The report also emphasizes the need for the swift operationalization of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the mobilization of large-scale domestic capital.
Investment in Renewable Energy and Financial Architecture
The report encourages African nations to diversify their energy mix by accelerating investments in renewable energy and the gas sector. It also highlights the importance of expediting the implementation of the New African Financial Architecture for Development (NAFAD), which has recently concluded continent-wide consultations leading to the “Abidjan Consensus” on April 9, 2026.
United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Amina J. Mohammed called for measures to safeguard the progress already made at the continental level, emphasizing the need to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals outlined in the 2030 Agenda and Agenda 2063.
Marie-Laure Akin-Olugbagde, Senior Vice President of AfDB, stressed the necessity for global coordination, stating that no country or institution can confront these challenges in isolation. She highlighted the importance of a rapid response, akin to the actions taken during the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, with a focus on placing people at the center of interventions.
Ahunna Ezioknwa, Director of the UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa, emphasized the need for resilience, stating that African countries possess the means to respond effectively. She advocated for energy independence through investment in domestic solutions and encouraged youth engagement in innovation, digital technology, and artificial intelligence.
Following the report’s presentation, a panel discussion explored its findings and proposed additional solutions.
Source: www.zawya.com
Read all the latest developments and breaking updates in the Latest News section.
Published on 2026-04-16 20:42:00 • By the Editorial Desk
