Netanyahu Races to Pass $225 Billion Budget Amid Stagnant Polls and Escalating Iran War

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure to finalize a state budget aimed at preventing early elections that could jeopardize his political future. The ongoing conflict in Iran has not significantly bolstered his standing in the polls, complicating his efforts.

In the initial days of the war, Netanyahu’s allies perceived an opportunity for his right-wing coalition to gain an advantage by scheduling elections ahead of an anticipated October date. According to sources familiar with Netanyahu’s political strategy, one method to trigger snap elections would involve allowing the parliament to fail in passing the budget by March 31, which would legally necessitate a vote within 90 days. As U.S.-Israeli strikes have resulted in the deaths of several high-ranking Iranian officials, some of Netanyahu’s advisors have suggested the possibility of a June election.

However, as the conflict enters its fourth week without achieving its stated goal of toppling Iran’s clerical leadership, Netanyahu is increasingly focused on avoiding early elections, as confirmed by three members of his government. This strategy includes allocating funds to political allies to secure a majority for the budget in parliament and expediting its passage through the Finance Committee to meet the upcoming deadline.

Netanyahu’s spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment regarding these developments.

Since the beginning of 2023, Netanyahu has consistently dismissed calls for early elections during wartime. He expressed hope that the government would complete its term, indicating elections would occur in September or October. On March 12, he urged his allies to act responsibly during the conflict and support the defense-heavy budget, which totals $225 billion.

Stalemate in Polls as War Drags On

The ongoing war has allowed Netanyahu to shift public focus from Gaza to a joint campaign with the United States against Iran, where there is considerable national consensus. Surveys indicate strong support among Israelis for the war, which Netanyahu claims is essential for eliminating an existential threat.

Despite this, election polls reveal a largely stagnant political landscape since the turmoil began on October 7, 2023, following Hamas’ surprise attack. Current polling shows approximately 40% of voters supporting Netanyahu’s coalition, with an equal percentage backing opposition parties. Political scientist Gideon Rahat from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem noted that the swing vote has not shifted toward Netanyahu.

Even as public sentiment rallies around the war’s objectives, there is growing fatigue among Israelis as the conflict continues without a clear resolution. Rahat remarked on the cyclical nature of the violence, stating, “You have one round, a few months of quiet, and then another round.”

A poll conducted by the Times of Israel on March 19 indicated that Netanyahu’s Likud party would secure 28 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, a decline from the current 34. While Likud would remain the largest party, the coalition would fall short of a majority, obtaining only 51 seats.

On March 3, Israeli Science Minister Gila Gamliel, a member of the Likud party, stated in a local radio interview that elections would likely occur in late June or early July. Senior party members and aides to Netanyahu have echoed this sentiment in discussions with Israeli media.

In recent weeks, Netanyahu has acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the potential for regime change in Iran. As the conflict approaches its fifth week, the likelihood of a summer election appears increasingly remote. Rahat commented that Netanyahu’s strategy seems focused on buying time.

Budget Deadline Nears as War Costs Soar

The ongoing conflict has significant economic implications, costing Israel approximately five billion shekels ($1.6 billion) per week, according to estimates from the Finance Ministry. Since the onset of the war, Netanyahu’s government has also approved an additional 32 billion shekels for defense expenditures.

With defense spending escalating, there is less funding available to meet the demands of key political constituencies whose support is crucial for Netanyahu in parliament. This includes ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, which had previously exited his government in 2025.

These parties threatened to oppose the budget unless legislation was passed to exempt ultra-Orthodox individuals from mandatory military service, a contentious issue that has strained Netanyahu’s alliance with them since 2023. However, they appear to have softened their stance after the coalition allocated approximately five billion shekels for ultra-Orthodox schools this month. Spokespeople for the Shas and UTJ parties did not respond to inquiries regarding this matter.

Vladimir Beliak, an opposition member on the parliament’s Finance Committee, criticized the government’s decision to prioritize coalition survival over equitable resource distribution.

Adding to Netanyahu’s political challenges is his ongoing corruption trial, facing charges of fraud, bribery, and breach of trust, which he denies. With support from U.S. President Donald Trump, Netanyahu has sought a pardon from Israeli President Isaac Herzog. A mid-trial pardon would be unprecedented, and Israel’s judicial system has raised objections to such a move.

Source: www.arnnewscentre.ae

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Published on 2026-03-25 17:34:00 • By the Editorial Desk