Dubai Police has unveiled a foresight study identifying 28 future drivers that could shape the security landscape beyond 2026. This initiative, developed by the Future Foresight Centre at Dubai Police, aims to address the implications of geopolitical tensions, technological advancements, and other emerging forces on urban security, as reported by Emirates247.
The study categorises potential changes across six dimensions: economic, technological, social, environmental, political, and security. Rather than predicting a singular outcome, it maps various possibilities and the forces that could drive them, enabling institutions to better anticipate emerging threats and enhance their readiness.
Key Risks Identified
Among the 28 drivers, Dubai Police highlighted several critical areas of concern, including cybersecurity threats, the stability of critical infrastructure, and the importance of public trust and social stability. The study indicates that as geopolitical tensions rise, cities may face unconventional threats, particularly during periods of instability, with cyber systems and vital infrastructure among the potential targets.
Brigadier Dr Hamdan Ahmad Al Ghasiyah, Director of the Future Foresight Centre, emphasised that the stability of global cities is crucial for their roles in the economy, trade, and tourism. He noted that assessing urban stability requires a broader perspective that includes interconnected social, cultural, technological, political, and environmental factors.
Future Security Scenarios
The study outlines four potential security scenarios: Continued Stability, The New Balance, Adaptive Resilience, and Transformative Security. Brigadier Al Ghasiyah stated that the rapid pace of political and economic changes necessitates a strategic examination of various future possibilities.
Scenario planning allows institutions to evaluate uncertainties, consider different pathways and their potential consequences, and develop strategies to enhance organisational agility and preparedness.
Proactive Measures Proposed
In addition to identifying future drivers, the study proposes 21 proactive measures aimed at bolstering preparedness against potential threats. Key recommendations include developing training exercises that simulate emerging security challenges and establishing an integrated operations centre that combines field security, cyber capabilities, and artificial intelligence.
Furthermore, the study suggests deploying Agentic AI to combat misinformation and enhance information verification processes, alongside developing real-time predictive systems to identify patterns and provide early warnings of potential threats.
Colonel Omar Khalifa Balobaida Al Suwaidi, Deputy Director of the Future Foresight Centre, clarified that scenario building is not merely about predicting future events but is intended to expand strategic thinking and support flexible decision-making in the face of regional and international uncertainties.
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