Allianz Trade Predicts 15,000 Global Business Insolvencies Due to Middle East Conflict in 2026-2027
The ongoing crisis in the Middle East is projected to significantly impact global business insolvencies, with Allianz Trade estimating an increase of 15,000 cases over the next two years. This forecast, released in Allianz Trade’s latest Insolvency Report, indicates that the direct toll from the conflict will result in an additional 7,000 insolvencies in 2026 and 7,900 in 2027 compared to pre-crisis estimates.
Rising Insolvency Rates Amidst Global Uncertainty
Allianz Trade, a leader in trade credit insurance, anticipates a 6% rise in global business insolvencies for 2026, marking the fifth consecutive year of growth in this area. The report highlights that this trend is expected to continue into 2027, where insolvencies are projected to plateau at a high level. The ongoing conflict is exacerbating existing volatility in energy markets, shipping costs, and global supply chains, leading to increased inflation and deteriorating business confidence.
Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade, noted that the situation is driving up costs across various sectors, including agrifood, manufacturing, healthcare, and technology. The pressures are particularly acute for energy-intensive industries such as transportation, chemicals, and metals. Companies with weak pricing power, thin margins, high debt levels, or significant working capital requirements are particularly vulnerable.
Prolonged Conflict Could Intensify Insolvency Risks
The report warns that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the disruption to global oil and gas supplies could have severe repercussions. This scenario could lead to further shortages of essential commodities, including fertilizers and helium. The combined effects of rising inflation, declining confidence, and reduced economic growth could elevate insolvency risks even further.
Maxime Lemerle, Lead Analyst for insolvency research at Allianz Trade, stated that a sustained escalation of the conflict could lead to a 10% increase in global insolvencies in 2026 and a 3% increase in 2027. This escalation would translate to approximately 4,100 additional insolvency cases in the United States and 10,500 in Western Europe during the 2026-2027 period.
Job Losses Linked to Business Insolvencies
The anticipated rise in business insolvencies is expected to have a profound impact on employment. Allianz Trade estimates that a 6% increase in global business insolvencies in 2026 could put around 2.2 million jobs at risk, representing an increase of 94,000 jobs compared to 2025.
The sectors most at risk include construction, retail, and services. Europe is projected to bear the brunt of these job losses, with approximately 1.3 million people potentially affected. Western Europe and North America are expected to see their highest levels of job risk in over a decade, with around 960,000 and 460,000 jobs at risk, respectively. Overall, these job losses would account for about 6% of the total unemployed population in the U.S. and Europe.
For further details, refer to the original report at Zawya.
Published on 2026-04-22 09:32:00 • By the Editorial Desk
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